Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 13.119497 15.978798 19.157589 22.931864 27.268322 32.072063 37.772286
2026-01-18 9.262585 13.000038 17.606375 23.604858 31.106509 40.072076 51.481871
2026-01-25 6.714254 10.622177 15.863573 23.200816 32.979212 45.324794 61.823502
2026-02-01 5.249072 9.222439 14.950554 23.460153 35.389177 51.102168 72.890163
2026-02-08 4.028149 7.850264 13.757821 23.034400 36.648809 55.267805 81.925702
2026-02-15 3.074285 6.650039 12.568199 22.364830 37.366517 58.593241 89.864901
2026-02-22 2.587526 6.120296 12.312083 23.011219 39.957943 64.582769 101.666336
2026-03-01 2.048757 5.354412 11.522132 22.677257 40.978720 68.305921 110.383276
2026-03-08 1.672642 4.809403 11.014423 22.712985 42.517630 72.804674 120.346638
2026-03-15 1.266261 4.077911 10.029295 21.787196 42.393579 74.736185 126.566508
2026-03-22 1.090832 3.832563 9.938027 22.420174 44.846304 80.698514 138.992387
2026-03-29 0.919349 3.544396 9.707783 22.756287 46.792984 85.928861 150.477624
2026-04-05 0.766183 3.273524 9.506882 23.199403 49.085802 92.032216 163.904327
2026-04-12 0.648385 3.066041 9.416482 23.859074 51.828234 99.035188 179.089092
2026-04-19 0.497064 2.682753 8.838046 23.450232 52.586544 102.789186 189.273100
2026-04-26 0.405163 2.458963 8.599830 23.711659 54.578758 108.665802 203.033209
2026-05-03 0.306750 2.151731 8.077070 23.282303 55.208896 112.228407 213.142840
2026-05-10 0.223427 1.847001 7.484081 22.607049 55.286875 114.807262 221.693669
2026-05-17 0.188847 1.750985 7.467451 23.258925 58.025432 122.148312 238.373946
2026-05-24 0.140971 1.542442 7.060126 22.922132 58.728693 125.884320 249.109061
2026-05-31 0.109405 1.398442 6.819099 22.958163 60.188563 131.024266 262.366913
2026-06-07 0.073016 1.170948 6.230154 22.024483 59.525709 132.237694 268.912618
2026-06-14 0.060890 1.116921 6.241152 22.662864 62.270481 139.852886 286.753058